Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives.
Identifieur interne : 000250 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000249; suivant : 000251Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives.
Auteurs : Marek Kocha Czyk [Pologne] ; Tomasz Lipniacki [Pologne]Source :
- Scientific reports [ 2045-2322 ] ; 2021.
Abstract
Countries worldwide have adopted various strategies to minimize the socio-economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stringency of imposed measures universally reflects the standpoint from which protecting public health and avoiding damage to economy are seen as contradictory objectives. Based on epidemic trajectories of 25 highly developed countries and 10 US states in the (mobility reduction)-(reproduction number) plane we showed that delay in imposition of nation-wide quarantine elevates the number of infections and deaths, surge of which inevitably has to be suppressed by stringent and sustained lockdown. As a consequence, cumulative mobility reduction and population-normalized cumulative number of COVID-19-associated deaths are significantly correlated and this correlation increases with time. Overall, we demonstrated that, as long as epidemic suppression is the aim, the trade-off between the death toll and economic loss is illusory: high death toll correlates with deep and long-lasting lockdown causing a severe economic downturn.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-81869-2
PubMed: 33510274
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Stringency of imposed measures universally reflects the standpoint from which protecting public health and avoiding damage to economy are seen as contradictory objectives. Based on epidemic trajectories of 25 highly developed countries and 10 US states in the (mobility reduction)-(reproduction number) plane we showed that delay in imposition of nation-wide quarantine elevates the number of infections and deaths, surge of which inevitably has to be suppressed by stringent and sustained lockdown. As a consequence, cumulative mobility reduction and population-normalized cumulative number of COVID-19-associated deaths are significantly correlated and this correlation increases with time. Overall, we demonstrated that, as long as epidemic suppression is the aim, the trade-off between the death toll and economic loss is illusory: high death toll correlates with deep and long-lasting lockdown causing a severe economic downturn.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="In-Data-Review" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">33510274</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2021</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>29</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2045-2322</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>11</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2021</Year><Month>Jan</Month><Day>28</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Scientific reports</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Sci Rep</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>2425</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1038/s41598-021-81869-2</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Countries worldwide have adopted various strategies to minimize the socio-economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stringency of imposed measures universally reflects the standpoint from which protecting public health and avoiding damage to economy are seen as contradictory objectives. Based on epidemic trajectories of 25 highly developed countries and 10 US states in the (mobility reduction)-(reproduction number) plane we showed that delay in imposition of nation-wide quarantine elevates the number of infections and deaths, surge of which inevitably has to be suppressed by stringent and sustained lockdown. As a consequence, cumulative mobility reduction and population-normalized cumulative number of COVID-19-associated deaths are significantly correlated and this correlation increases with time. 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Med. 172, 577–582 (2020).</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.7326/M20-0504</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Pologne</li></country></list><tree><country name="Pologne"><noRegion><name sortKey="Kocha Czyk, Marek" sort="Kocha Czyk, Marek" uniqKey="Kocha Czyk M" first="Marek" last="Kocha Czyk">Marek Kocha Czyk</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Lipniacki, Tomasz" sort="Lipniacki, Tomasz" uniqKey="Lipniacki T" first="Tomasz" last="Lipniacki">Tomasz Lipniacki</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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